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Seasonal and climate risk in feed sourcing

En bref

Seasonal risk arises where supply availability, quality and freight capacity follow annual cycles — harvest, fishing seasons, monsoon and winter navigation — and where demand peaks do not coincide with those cycles.

Points clés

  • Quality, not just availability, varies by season.
  • Freight capacity and port performance are also seasonal.
  • Coverage decisions should be made before the seasonal window closes.

Supply and quality seasonality

Harvest timing sets availability and, through growing and drying conditions, moisture and mycotoxin profiles. Late-season stock has been stored longer and carries different quality risk from new-crop material.

Logistics seasonality

Monsoon, ice-affected navigation, harvest-period truck shortages and holiday closures all compress capacity at predictable times. Planning around them is straightforward once they are on the procurement calendar.

À vérifier

  • Seasonal supply calendar documented per ingredient and origin
  • Quality expectations adjusted for old-crop versus new-crop material
  • Coverage decision dates set ahead of seasonal windows

Risques à maîtriser

  • Buying into a seasonal price peak because cover was left late
  • Elevated mycotoxin risk in a poor harvest year
  • Freight capacity unavailable at a predictable seasonal peak

Erreurs fréquentes

  • Treating an ingredient as available year-round without checking
  • Applying new-crop quality assumptions to old-crop material
  • Ignoring origin-country holidays in the calendar

Questions fréquentes

Does new-crop material always test better?

Not necessarily. New crop has had less storage exposure, but a difficult harvest can deliver new-crop material with higher moisture and greater mycotoxin risk than well-stored old crop.

How far ahead should seasonal cover be decided?

Before the window in which the material is available and freight can be secured — which is normally well before the price signal appears.

À lire également

Retour à Gestion des risques

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